EXPERT BLOCK
Kirill Neyolov
Owner NK-Group
"Dear colleagues, friends!
We are pleased to introduce you our new product - the Expert Block.
It is no secret that we are deeply involved in international activities and have professional partners in the timber business.
We are ready to share with you the opinions of our experts from around the world.
You can also take part in our project and express your expert position on the situation in the forest industry from the perspective of your business. Contact us using the feedback form on the website or by social networks.
Your information will be useful to everyone, have not doubt."
We are pleased to introduce you our new product - the Expert Block.
It is no secret that we are deeply involved in international activities and have professional partners in the timber business.
We are ready to share with you the opinions of our experts from around the world.
You can also take part in our project and express your expert position on the situation in the forest industry from the perspective of your business. Contact us using the feedback form on the website or by social networks.
Your information will be useful to everyone, have not doubt."
THE SITUATION IN JAPAN.
Mr. Maruyama-san, director timber procurement manager at a large company in Japan, comments:
Mr. Maruyama-san, director timber procurement manager at a large company in Japan, comments:
Mr. Maruyama-san
“The price for Lamina now varies from 250 to 300 EUR per 1 cubic meter. m. It depends on the size and species (spruce / WW, pine / RW).
As for "Genban", here the prices are from 250 to 380 EUR per 1 cubic meter. m of goods, also depends on the size.
If we talk about planed products, S4S spruce sawn timber, the price range here is also large - from 320 to 450 EUR, depending on the type of product.
As for logistics, now the supply of goods from Europe costs us around 40-60 euros per 1 cubic meter. m., depending on the location of the producer.
Regarding the purchase of goods, over the past three years (2021, 2022, 2023) we have seen a decrease in the volume of purchases. In particular, this is due to the fact that now is not the best time to buy real estate. People are waiting for the inflation process to slow down significantly. Japan housing starts in March this year was 73,693 (down 3.2% from last year). Mortgage loans for the construction of a wooden house are issued at an interest rate of approximately 0.2 to 0.5%.
From about the third quarter of this year, we expect an increase in sawn timber trade, but it will not be intense until the inflation process stops.
Stocks of goods in the port of Tokyo, according to our estimates at the end of April, 130 thousand cubic meters. m. We predict that by the end of May there will be a normal level of stocks in the port of Tokyo - 110,000 - 120,000 cubic meters. m
In Japan, after the "Wood Shock" there is such a sharp trend - a decrease in the market share of imported goods. Many consumers have started to buy more domestically produced goods, as there are no risks in this, such as a late arrival of a container with the goods, for example.”
As for "Genban", here the prices are from 250 to 380 EUR per 1 cubic meter. m of goods, also depends on the size.
If we talk about planed products, S4S spruce sawn timber, the price range here is also large - from 320 to 450 EUR, depending on the type of product.
As for logistics, now the supply of goods from Europe costs us around 40-60 euros per 1 cubic meter. m., depending on the location of the producer.
Regarding the purchase of goods, over the past three years (2021, 2022, 2023) we have seen a decrease in the volume of purchases. In particular, this is due to the fact that now is not the best time to buy real estate. People are waiting for the inflation process to slow down significantly. Japan housing starts in March this year was 73,693 (down 3.2% from last year). Mortgage loans for the construction of a wooden house are issued at an interest rate of approximately 0.2 to 0.5%.
From about the third quarter of this year, we expect an increase in sawn timber trade, but it will not be intense until the inflation process stops.
Stocks of goods in the port of Tokyo, according to our estimates at the end of April, 130 thousand cubic meters. m. We predict that by the end of May there will be a normal level of stocks in the port of Tokyo - 110,000 - 120,000 cubic meters. m
In Japan, after the "Wood Shock" there is such a sharp trend - a decrease in the market share of imported goods. Many consumers have started to buy more domestically produced goods, as there are no risks in this, such as a late arrival of a container with the goods, for example.”
EASTERN CHINA
Jericho Ray – Sourcing Manager, China National Forest Products Industry Corporation
Jericho Ray
«The East China market is the market with the largest stock of sawn timber in the country, so it tends to go up as well as down. And when the inventory of a goods is too full, it is difficult for the price in the domestic market to rise.
As of today, our daily shipment volume is only 20,000 cubic meters of goods per day and our monthly consumption is 600,000 cubic meters, but our inventory is 1.7 million cubic meters, which is almost three times the monthly consumption.
As for the improvement of the situation, it seems to me that this can only happen in the Q3 of this year, when a large amount of inventory will decrease due to financial pressure.
That is, the key signal is that in order to improve the state of domestic real estate, it is necessary to reduce inventories and resume infrastructure construction. This will be the growth driver»
As of today, our daily shipment volume is only 20,000 cubic meters of goods per day and our monthly consumption is 600,000 cubic meters, but our inventory is 1.7 million cubic meters, which is almost three times the monthly consumption.
As for the improvement of the situation, it seems to me that this can only happen in the Q3 of this year, when a large amount of inventory will decrease due to financial pressure.
That is, the key signal is that in order to improve the state of domestic real estate, it is necessary to reduce inventories and resume infrastructure construction. This will be the growth driver»
NEWS
DECREASING PRICES FOR LOGS MAKES THE DRUG UNPROFITABLE. (NEW ZEALAND)
Log exporters are being blamed for the current fall in log prices to levels that make logging unprofitable.
Between March and April, log prices fell 14 percent to $112-$115 for a Class A log.
Allan Laurie, Managing Director of Laurie Forestry, said in an interview that a few months ago it was clear that the usual seasonal increase in consumption in China was not happening, and market signals indicated that the construction boom in China was coming to an end.
“Despite the fact that some of the fundamentals were declining in the first quarter of this year, New Zealand exporters in the market tried to raise prices,” he said.
“As a result, some ships were sailing without contracts, without letters of credit,” he said, meaning that exporters had to accept any price offered for the logs upon arrival in China.
The fall in demand has driven prices down to levels that require forest owners to shut down their operations.
Allan Laurie advised the company to look for new markets, advising to pay attention to the Indian and European markets.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/business/forestry-dive-in-log-prices-making-harvesting-uneconomic/
LUMBER PRICES FELL 57% YEAR ON YEAR, BELOW PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS.
Lumber cost on May 8 is $356 for 1,000 boards. This is below the peak of $1,733 and down 57% from $827 a year ago.
There is a sort of seasonal demand for lumber and lumber prices usually peak in April or May. This spring, we did not see a significant jump in prices due to the slowdown in house price growth.
There is a sort of seasonal demand for lumber and lumber prices usually peak in April or May. This spring, we did not see a significant jump in prices due to the slowdown in house price growth.
DEMAND FOR LUMBER REMAINS WEAK AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. (USA)
As April drew to a close, the annual spring purchase of building framing softwood timber never began. In this regard, suppliers have accumulated large stocks. In this situation, supply significantly outpaced demand.
At the end of April, there was a decrease in the cost of benchmark sawn softwood. At the same time, there was a good demand for low-grade goods.
TESTING A 10-STOREY WOODEN HOUSE FOR DURABILITY. (USA)
UC San Diego researchers use an earthquake simulator to study seismic safety. Engineers tested the design of the 10-story building for resistance to earthquakes of magnitude 6.7 and 7.7.
It is reported that the study was successful, the building survived with minor damage.
Global interest in mass wood building has skyrocketed over the past few years after the International Building Code announced its intention to add new building regulations to allow the construction of wood buildings up to 18 stories high.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/10-story-building-made-timber-withstand-77-magnitude/story?id=99224405
NEW FORMALDEHYDE STANDARDS FOR COMPOSITE WOOD PRODUCTS. (CANADA)
The Formaldehyde Emissions from Composite Wood Products (CANFER) Regulations impose requirements on manufacturers, importers and sellers of composite wood products to test, certify, label and report these products.
According to CANFER, any individual or company that manufactures, imports or sells composite wood products must now comply with the following regulatory requirements:
1. Testing for formaldehyde emissions;
2. Carrying out certification according to CANFER standards (or US TSCA Title VI);
3. Product labeling;
4. Preparation of a self-identification report in accordance with CANFER;
5. Documentation of initial tests, production changes, etc.
https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/new-formaldehyde-standards-on-composite-1690735/
According to CANFER, any individual or company that manufactures, imports or sells composite wood products must now comply with the following regulatory requirements:
1. Testing for formaldehyde emissions;
2. Carrying out certification according to CANFER standards (or US TSCA Title VI);
3. Product labeling;
4. Preparation of a self-identification report in accordance with CANFER;
5. Documentation of initial tests, production changes, etc.
https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/new-formaldehyde-standards-on-composite-1690735/
INNOVATIONS IN LOADING NEW ZEALAND TIMBER. (NEW ZEALAND)
Forestry is an important industry in New Zealand, generating about $6.8 billion in annual export earnings, equal to 1.6% of New Zealand's GDP, and employing about 35,000 people in manufacturing, processing and commercialization.
To support New Zealand's large timber industry, Liebherr Maritime Cranes partnered with ISO Limited, Qube and SMAG to develop a state-of-the-art timber loading solution at the ports of Tauranga and Gisborne. Based on the results, a fundamentally new LHM 550 crane with a height of 51 meters and an outreach of 54 meters was designed and launched. The LHM 550 has electro-hydraulic grippers that are the first in the world in terms of size and lifting capacity (35 tons and 9.0 m² respectively).
https://www.ajot.com/news/iso-limited-and-liebherr-advance-new-zealand-timber
Forestry is an important industry in New Zealand, generating about $6.8 billion in annual export earnings, equal to 1.6% of New Zealand's GDP, and employing about 35,000 people in manufacturing, processing and commercialization.
To support New Zealand's large timber industry, Liebherr Maritime Cranes partnered with ISO Limited, Qube and SMAG to develop a state-of-the-art timber loading solution at the ports of Tauranga and Gisborne. Based on the results, a fundamentally new LHM 550 crane with a height of 51 meters and an outreach of 54 meters was designed and launched. The LHM 550 has electro-hydraulic grippers that are the first in the world in terms of size and lifting capacity (35 tons and 9.0 m² respectively).
https://www.ajot.com/news/iso-limited-and-liebherr-advance-new-zealand-timber
EXPORT PRICES FOR TIMBER INCREASED BY 4.1%. (CAMEROON)
Prices for wood exported by the Cemac countries (countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community) increased by 4.1% compared to the previous quarter in the second quarter, according to the Composite Commodity Price Index (ICCPB) released by the central bank Beac.
Compared to the previous quarter, log prices rose 7.3% to $275/m3, while lumber prices rose 3.5% to $582.1/m3.
This dynamic is due to the fact that the state authorities of Cemac recently postponed indefinitely the entry into force of the ban on the export of logs. However, it is worth noting that in Gabon the ban has been in effect for several years, and in the Congo since January 1, 2023.
https://www.businessincameroon.com/public-management/2604-13060-cemac-timber-export-prices-up-4-1-qoq-in-q1-2023
Prices for wood exported by the Cemac countries (countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community) increased by 4.1% compared to the previous quarter in the second quarter, according to the Composite Commodity Price Index (ICCPB) released by the central bank Beac.
Compared to the previous quarter, log prices rose 7.3% to $275/m3, while lumber prices rose 3.5% to $582.1/m3.
This dynamic is due to the fact that the state authorities of Cemac recently postponed indefinitely the entry into force of the ban on the export of logs. However, it is worth noting that in Gabon the ban has been in effect for several years, and in the Congo since January 1, 2023.
https://www.businessincameroon.com/public-management/2604-13060-cemac-timber-export-prices-up-4-1-qoq-in-q1-2023
CHINA HAS LIFTED A BAN ON AUSTRALIAN TIMBER IMPORTS. (AUSTRALIA)
“Chinese Customs has formally notified the Australian Minister of Agriculture that as of today (May 18, 2023), China will resume importing Australian timber,” said Ambassador Xiao Qian in Canberra.
Trade has been in limbo since late 2020 due to tensions between the two countries.
In turn, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said that the face-to-face talks represent a positive step forward, given the multi-year diplomatic freeze that began under the previous coalition government.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2023/05/18/china-drop-ban-australian-timber/
Trade has been in limbo since late 2020 due to tensions between the two countries.
In turn, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said that the face-to-face talks represent a positive step forward, given the multi-year diplomatic freeze that began under the previous coalition government.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2023/05/18/china-drop-ban-australian-timber/
CURRENT PRICES FOR PELLETS. (POLAND)
On Friday, May 19, in Castorama supermarkets, the price per ton is PLN 2,000. In Leroy Merlin, the cheapest pellets can be bought at PLN 1930, and the most expensive at PLN 3130 per ton, packed in 15 kg bags or in bulk at PLN 1596 for 600 kg. In Ob, pellets are available at prices ranging from PLN 2000 to PLN 2670 per ton.
ASIA HAS INCREASED ITS SHARE OF GLOBAL WOOD PELLET IMPORTS TO A RECORD 32%. (GREECE)
The volume of world trade in wood pellets remained practically unchanged compared to the same period last year. Despite minimal change in global volume, there have been some notable shifts in country-level trade flows in 2022. Asia, represented by Japan and South Korea, continued to increase import volumes at the expense of European buyers.
Japan recorded the highest growth in demand for pellets from 1.0 Mt in 2018 to 4.4 Mt in 2022. The upward trend is expected to continue and Japan will become the fastest growing market in the world in the next 5-10 years. Currently, Vietnam is the main supplier of pellets to Japan, followed by Canada and the United States.
As Japanese energy companies enter into long-term supply agreements with major North American suppliers, the largest increase in pellet supplies in the coming years is likely to come from the US and Canada.
Japan recorded the highest growth in demand for pellets from 1.0 Mt in 2018 to 4.4 Mt in 2022. The upward trend is expected to continue and Japan will become the fastest growing market in the world in the next 5-10 years. Currently, Vietnam is the main supplier of pellets to Japan, followed by Canada and the United States.
As Japanese energy companies enter into long-term supply agreements with major North American suppliers, the largest increase in pellet supplies in the coming years is likely to come from the US and Canada.
FIREWOOD AND PELLETS HAVE FALLEN IN PRICE - WAREHOUSES ARE FILLED AS BEFORE WINTER
The energy crisis has also affected the citizens of Serbia - they are changing their habits: most have begun to save electricity, and households that are heated by wood and pellets are already visiting warehouses and buying for the next heating season. Compared to May last year, firewood has fallen in price by up to 30 percent. Warehouses are loaded, as before the heating season.
The cost of pellets varies from 30.000 to 36.000 dinars per ton, while wood is the cheapest in the south of the country and the most expensive in Vojvodina.
The Association of Pellet Plants, which has 80 members, says that production is now completely normalized.
https://www.slobodenpecat.mk/en/drvata-i-peletite-poevtinija-magacinite-se-prepolni-kako-pred-zima/
The cost of pellets varies from 30.000 to 36.000 dinars per ton, while wood is the cheapest in the south of the country and the most expensive in Vojvodina.
The Association of Pellet Plants, which has 80 members, says that production is now completely normalized.
https://www.slobodenpecat.mk/en/drvata-i-peletite-poevtinija-magacinite-se-prepolni-kako-pred-zima/
THE HEATING DISPUTE ALSO FLARED UP ABOUT PELLETS. (GERMANY)
The federal government is questioning the future of wood stoves and pellet heating systems. The main point of the sport is to convince the government of a large amount of emissions from burning wood, which representatives of the AGDW Association of Forest Owners strongly disagree with.
According to a new federal government project, from 2024, new buildings will no longer be heated with wood.
The Forest Owners Association calls the current bill a "massive attack" on its own economy.
According to a new federal government project, from 2024, new buildings will no longer be heated with wood.
The Forest Owners Association calls the current bill a "massive attack" on its own economy.
PELLETS PRICES IN GERMANY HAVE STABILIZED. (GERMANY)
Currently, there is a stabilization in the prices of pellets. Since the beginning of 2023, prices have been in the range of 300 and 400 euros per tonne of pellets. Experts expect that in the coming months the situation will not change significantly.
ARTICLES
ARCHITECTURAL WOOD PRODUCTS AND RETAIL COMPANIES SHARE FORECASTS FOR 2023. (USA)
Despite ongoing labor and supply chain challenges exacerbated by recession fears, wood products manufacturers in the architecture and retail segments remain relatively optimistic about 2023.
For 2024, forecasts are also optimistic, but more moderate, Doug Haig, CEO of the Institute of Architectural Woodwork, said in an interview.
The main indices reflecting the dynamics of trade in this segment showed steady growth.
One of the main problems for the industry is the lack of skilled labor.
For 2024, forecasts are also optimistic, but more moderate, Doug Haig, CEO of the Institute of Architectural Woodwork, said in an interview.
The main indices reflecting the dynamics of trade in this segment showed steady growth.
One of the main problems for the industry is the lack of skilled labor.
WHAT HAPPENED TO TIMBER PRICES? (AUSTRALIA)
The price of American Douglas fir provides a useful benchmark for the increasingly import-driven Australian timber industry. The price per unit volume of imports is expected to experience another rise (by 15% over the next 2 years) as the construction industry faces a combination of fluctuating demand, material shortages and price fluctuations.
Softwood lumber prices remain volatile, primarily due to oversupply and slowing demand. It is expected that by 2025 the price will grow steadily and reach $355 per cubic meter.
Australian timber industry
The Australian timber industry has been suffering since the end of 2019.
Wildfires in the summer of 2019-2020 burned 8.43 million hectares of natural forests and 130,000 hectares of plantations in the east and south of Australia. In addition to this, restrictions on deforestation of Australian forests were introduced, as well as government subsidies for the construction of new homes or the renovation of existing ones, which provoked an increase in demand for building materials.
All this led to an increase in imports. Australia imported US$617 million worth of sawnwood in 2021. The main exporters were Germany (24.1%), New Zealand (20.5%) and Sweden (7.9%).
Softwood lumber prices remain volatile, primarily due to oversupply and slowing demand. It is expected that by 2025 the price will grow steadily and reach $355 per cubic meter.
Australian timber industry
The Australian timber industry has been suffering since the end of 2019.
Wildfires in the summer of 2019-2020 burned 8.43 million hectares of natural forests and 130,000 hectares of plantations in the east and south of Australia. In addition to this, restrictions on deforestation of Australian forests were introduced, as well as government subsidies for the construction of new homes or the renovation of existing ones, which provoked an increase in demand for building materials.
All this led to an increase in imports. Australia imported US$617 million worth of sawnwood in 2021. The main exporters were Germany (24.1%), New Zealand (20.5%) and Sweden (7.9%).
EXPORT/IMPORT
EXPORT OF LUMBER FROM RUSSIA IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR DECREASED BY 21%
According to the latest report from RoslesInforg, in the first quarter of 2023, timber exports from Russia decreased by 20.9% compared to the same period last year. The volume of supplies for the reporting period amounted to 4.5 million cubic meters. less than 5.7 million cubic meters in the same period last year.
Director of RoslesInforg, Pavel Chashchin, said in an interview: Since the beginning of the year, we have seen an increase in exports to Central Asia, East Asia and the Middle East. In the first three months of this year, China and Uzbekistan accounted for about 74% of all exports.
There was also an increase in imports of Russian timber from the following countries:
Iran increased by 2.3% to 104,300 m3；
Tajikistan increased by 1.5 times to 115,000 m3；
UAE increased by 1.7 times to 63400 m3；
Türkiye increased by 3.2 times to 58100 m3；
Kyrgyzstan increased 1.4 times to 70,100 cubic meters;
Hong Kong increased by 2.6% to 1.167 million tons.
Director of RoslesInforg, Pavel Chashchin, said in an interview: Since the beginning of the year, we have seen an increase in exports to Central Asia, East Asia and the Middle East. In the first three months of this year, China and Uzbekistan accounted for about 74% of all exports.
There was also an increase in imports of Russian timber from the following countries:
Iran increased by 2.3% to 104,300 m3；
Tajikistan increased by 1.5 times to 115,000 m3；
UAE increased by 1.7 times to 63400 m3；
Türkiye increased by 3.2 times to 58100 m3；
Kyrgyzstan increased 1.4 times to 70,100 cubic meters;
Hong Kong increased by 2.6% to 1.167 million tons.
THE PERM TERRITORY HAS INCREASED THE SUPPLY OF WOODEN PALLETS TO KAZAKHSTAN.
According to the Office of the Rosselkhoznadzor for the Kirov Region, the Udmurt Republic and the Perm Territory, in 2023, the Kama region significantly increased the export of wooden pallets to Kazakhstan. In total, since the beginning of the year, Perm suppliers have sent 9.1 thousand wooden pallets to Kazakhstan. For comparison, a year earlier, 7.9 thousand pallets were delivered from the Perm Territory to Kazakhstan.
https://lesprominform.ru/news.html?id=20751
THE KRASNOYARSK TERRITORY EXPORTED 1.3 MILLION CUBIC METERS OF TIMBER.
In the total volume of exports, the main part - 92% - was sawn timber, 1.2 million m³ were exported from the territory of the Krasnoyarsk Territory. Roundwood accounted for 89 thousand m³.
China remains the key importer of local timber with a share of 83% of the total timber export. Krasnoyarsk suppliers sent 959,000 m³ of sawn timber and 85,000 m³ of industrial timber to China.
China remains the key importer of local timber with a share of 83% of the total timber export. Krasnoyarsk suppliers sent 959,000 m³ of sawn timber and 85,000 m³ of industrial timber to China.
THE TOMSK REGION EXPORTED 363,000 CUBIC METERS OF TIMBER.
Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and China became the key importers of local timber. It is known that in all exports of sawn products, Uzbekistan accounted for 42%, China - 28%, Kyrgyzstan - 15%, Kazakhstan - 12%, Tajikistan - 2%. In addition, it is reported that another 1% of timber is exported to Vietnam, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Belarus, Korea and Afghanistan.
Roundwood from the Tomsk region was exported to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and China during the reporting months. In total, the region supplied 5.8 thousand m³ of industrial timber to international markets.
https://lesprominform.ru/news.html?id=20715
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, THE IRKUTSK REGION HAS EXPORTED 1.9 MILLION CUBIC METERS OF TIMBER.
In the total volume of export supplies, sawn timber accounted for 1,751 thousand m³, which is 92% of all timber exported abroad. Another 137,000 m³ of exported timber accounted for commercial timber.
The key importing countries were China - 402 thousand m³, Uzbekistan - 48 thousand m³, Japan - 20 thousand m³, Tajikistan - 10.7 thousand m³, Korea - 10.5 thousand m³.
The key importing countries were China - 402 thousand m³, Uzbekistan - 48 thousand m³, Japan - 20 thousand m³, Tajikistan - 10.7 thousand m³, Korea - 10.5 thousand m³.